Monday, June 05, 2006

I will be the Hokage

Not saying Stb played post flop poorly as I mentioned in my previous post. He got the best possible flop he could ever hope for. I also said I was pot committed by the time we made the flop so I had no choice but to continue on. Just lamenting a dominating hand losing and the dissapointment of playing poker for hours for nothing.

Pre-Flop-
ME
Scoop: 57%
Hi: 67%
Lo: 39%
EE: 0.681

STB:
Scoop: 21%
Hi: 33%
Lo: 15%
EE: 0.319

Even after the flop, although I have lost the edge on the high I am close to a coinflop to win the high and have a great shot at the low which demonstrates the importance of playing scooping hands in O8. I am also technically winning at this point.

Post-Flop-
Me:
Scoop: 35%
Hi: 46%
Lo: 52%
EE: 0.568

Him:
Scoop: 22%
Hi: 54%
Lo: 20%
EE: 0.43

As the numbers show he only has a 22% chance to make any money on this hand even though he has alot of draws. So he risked 10-15% of his stack, got the best possible flop he could imagine, and still only has a 22% chance of making any money off this hand.

The turn murders me. Finally after all the money has already gone in the odds switch fully to Stb. ALTHOUGH I still have a 35% chance to still take half the pot.

Turn -
Me:
Scoop: 0%
Hi: 5%
Lo: 35%
EE: 0.200

Stb:
Scoop: 60%
Hi: 95%
Lo: 13%
EE: 0.800

And I do not improve on the river. Thats poker. So be it. I want to say this again too I do not fault Stb's play. It was not bad. It was a bad situation for him and he got lucky. Of course I welcome the comments as always. They show your depth of knowlege about the game. As you are suggesting I should fold with 2xBB left and still at the very least a coinflip to win or tie. Winning poker there.

In addition I love how when I make a move and someone else is ahead "Oh yeah, they made a great call, you suck", of course when I am ahead "Yeah Waffles, you suck, never should have called there". At least be somewhat consistant.. oh wait, you are consistant in not ever giving me any credit for anything. My mistake again. I humbly bow to your incredible skills.

Fuck it I am on full off rant mode so I might as well finish. I find posting and getting advice in comments stupid. You get such a wide variety of players and people that it means nothing. Half the people are just not at a place where they can give any kind of meaningful advice. The other half are so inconsistant and just want to disagree with everything you say and only make points that prove their own way to play.

The real problem is you can not get a feel for a table or a game or anything from a hand history. It is one little tiny grain of salt in the great tapastry that is the game. The only good thing I see about the comments is it shows that almost everyone playing poker today can not lay down a weak hand. Probably since they have been playing online so much that their opponents often have weaker hands. It gives me great confidence that playing a slightly-more loose style will pay off in spades against narrow minded thinkers. I know I am not there yet but I feel some great things coming my way once I fully understand what I want to accomplish. So I am probably being WAYY too sensitive and WAYYY too pissy but I am in a ranting kind of mood so anyway fuck you all.

13 Comments:

Anonymous mookie99 said...

"Half the people are just not at a place where they can give any kind of meaningful advice."

This would be me and that is why I don't comment on most of your hand analysis posts. I really do enjoy reading them however as well as seeing comments from some of the people who are really good players.

One day, just maybe...and I too will be able to contribute.

12:51 PM

 
Blogger AlCantHang said...

In the immortal words of Billy Batts, "Now go home and get your f#$%king shine box."

12:59 PM

 
Blogger Fuel55 said...

I still love you waffler.

1:05 PM

 
Blogger Wes said...

I'm actually surprised you're not moving up in limits on a daily basis. Your play must be correct and us idiots still pay you off. Good luck at 50/100 NL at the end of the year.

1:18 PM

 
Blogger Dr. Pauly said...

"The only good thing I see about the comments is it shows that almost everyone playing poker today can not lay down a weak hand."

Ahhhh! That explains how you busted me in yesterday's tourney!

1:23 PM

 
Blogger SirFWALGMan said...

Well I was talking about HE but absolutely true Doc! HA! I felt really bad for about five seconds.. I kind of took you out single handedly.. although I do not claim to be very good at those other poker games.. heh.

1:27 PM

 
Blogger SirFWALGMan said...

Besides, you have mentioned to me an affinity for crappy low cards lately.. I think it was at Foxwoods where only your low card hands won.. or maybe when your brother cracked my aces with 35o or something.. see, I am for sure on to something here..

1:28 PM

 
Blogger SirFWALGMan said...

Woo hoo! Thanks Wes!

1:28 PM

 
Blogger CJ said...

"Of course I welcome the comments as always. They show your depth of knowlege about the game."

I take it that's supposed to be sarcasm? Because it was later followed by...

"I find posting and getting advice in comments stupid. You get such a wide variety of players and people that it means nothing. Half the people are just not at a place where they can give any kind of meaningful advice."

If you don't want comments, turn them off.

I went back to look and I don't think anyone criticized your play here. It's just the way O8 is played. Pre-flop percentages mean very little. StB had a relatively strong hand, especially for a high if it hit, and the flop was great for him. The turn was even better. And in limit poker, it's a lot easier to stick around. Had a diamond come, you might have been able to get away from your hand, but not likely based on your small stack and the high blinds.

I'm not quite sure where this particular rant came from, but, again, if you don't want to hear from anyone, close your comments.

1:44 PM

 
Blogger HighOnPoker said...

"It is one little tiny grain of salt in the great tapastry that is the game."

Dude, you have salt on your tapestry? Whatever! I'm just glad to see the ranting Waffle is back!

3:39 PM

 
Blogger DuggleBogey said...

Waffles, I think in general you are a very good player, and I like how you play. When you learn something new, you are genuinely excited about it, which is obvious by how you express yourself in your blog.

What I don't like is how you tend to run down your opponents play, even if he has a good hand and sometimes even if he makes the correct play.

When you criticize the play of your opponents every time, even when it may have been correct for them to play that way, you lose credibility.

As an example, in the last post your opponent had kings and a flush draw, and you claim he hit his "two-outer. "

You have a tendency to minimize your opponents opportunities, and maximize or exaggerate yours, like when you called your 42% draw (or whatever) a "coin flip."

More objectivity will bring you more credibility.

7:53 PM

 
Blogger DP said...

Nice well thought-out comment Duggle.

8:07 PM

 
Blogger CJ said...

Having just seen Goodfellas again (for like the 50th time), Al's comment is Best. Ever.

11:04 PM

 

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