Questionable Laydowns
I always ask for advice and opinions on hands because frankly I want to know the mindset of all the fish who play against me. It is constantly changing so here are a few questions for you.
Here are two hands against the same player. I raised from EP with a 40K stack, the guy like second in chips with a 26K stack jams all in. I read this as a retard playing the bubble hard alla Sucko. I have AK s000ted. However I folded. If I lose the hand I go from first to worst. If I win the hand I have amazing amounts of chips. Is this a bad fold on the bubble of a 136 person SNG?
Second hand. Same guy. Same thing. He shoves from the cutoff. I have 99 in this situation. Same exact issue. If I call I am racing. If I lose I am short. If I win I am a HUGE stack. Is my more conservative fold in this spot a good play or a bad play?
I have been looking at my game a bit lately and not liking a few plays. Such as getting in the habit of overplaying weaker AQx type hands. I totally made mistakes like that with 4-5 people left. However am I moving too far in the other direction laying down big hands to second place in chips at a 5 handed table on the bubble? The other possibility is that I am doing what I should to ensure cashing instead of pissing away huge leads on coin flips. Comments? Suggestions?
Also has anyone noticed that the min-raise has become a pussy weapon of interesting use. Towards the end of this same 136-peep SNG I was in people were CONSTANTLY min raising. It used to be that a min-raise was a strong hand. Retards giving odds for you to suckout on AA. Now however it seems like these pussies do not want to lose 3-4xBB to steal the blinds, so instead they min raise. All the fucking time. Also I noticed. It works. The weak-tight fuckers fold EVERY SINGLE TIME. Even yours truly. One hand though dude min-raises me. He has a good size stack. I jam him with AT s00ted or so. He calls me with like 4T diamonds. I stack his ass. Weird fucking people playing poker these days.
posted by SirFWALGMan at
6:28 AM
11 Comments:
Also to dD. Not ignoring you. Read this for the origin of SirFWALGMan.
http://sirfwalgman.blogspot.com/2005/06/one-year.html
6:38 AM
Both hands are more-or-less identical, though I'm more apt to shove / call AK than 99. If you don't already know (sorry if I'm a broken record, but there are readers out there who don't), you are generally *AT WORST* truly flipping a coin, and at best, you're dominating his AQ, AJ, KQ, etc. Moreover, there is less of a chance the he holds AA, KK, which are your two biggest fears in that spot.
All of that said, and I'm not a MTT player, I think survival is key in these games. If a fold gets you closer to the money, and you feel you won't make the money if you lose the hand, then a fold is the correct choice, no? Personally, I don't have a problem with either of the laydowns, though again, I'm more inclined to call AKs than 99.
8:30 AM
Without knowing the payout structure and stack sizes [in terms of M or BB] it's impossible to say if this is great or terrible. Also we don't know what your contributrion, say with the AK hand, was to determine your equity in the hand. However, if we assume that it is a standard payout structure where most of the money is awarded to the top 3 places and most players are playing 10-15 big blinds, I think the AK hand would be a bad fold.
I understand that you are strictly speaking in terms of survival, but there are a few things that you musn't overlook:
1) You will stand to win more in the long-run by putting yourself in a situation to win the tournament, as opposed to, folding your way to the final table, 3rd, etc.
2) Your equity with these hands is actually greater because of the bubble dynamic and an adjustment is necessary. This means ranges widen, hand values such as 99+ and AK go up dramatically and therefore you could account for increased equity in these spots.
However, I will agree with you that your overall equity as a player is much greater than engaging in a likely coin flip at almost any point in the tournament. In theory if you are a stronger player than your opponenets post-flop, you aren't interested in playing large pots pre-flop; your edge is simply smaller.
8:54 AM
The facts are something along these lines.
136-Man
15 spots pay
Money is top 5 maybe.. 150 for first, 50 for 5th.. 8 bucks for making 15th..
My stack size is 41K.
The blinds are 250/500.
In the AK hand I raised 1500. He jammed 26K. I folded.
In the 99 hand he cold jammed again around 26K to my 41K.
My thoughts here are. Do I want to play my big stack and protect it somewhat with 15 left. Or do I want to possibly lose a coin flip and fall to 9-10 of 15 instead of 1 of 15?
I think this becomes a snap call against say a 5-10K stack. A possible call for 10-20K... and I probably fold for 20-30K+ stacks jamming against me.
I do take Meisters point that there is some chance I am against AQ/AJ and am more like 70-30, however.. I think often times I am also against 22-AA. More likely smaller pairs as bigger pairs like to min raise or play other stupid games.
So really what I am questioning here for myself is what is the value of my being #1 in chips vs a middle stack vs being #1 in chips with a MUCH larger lead.
I mean being #1 in chips does no preclude me from making a run at the top spot. I have been doing something right. Obviously have a monstero lead is a better thing than having like a 10-15K lead but is it worth the extra risk?
9:18 AM
#1, eff it, you call and lose, you still have 30BB. Win a flip, AKs is the nizzles. Muppets that make these kind of plays deserve to have you take their stacks making a "bad" call. Plus, it's a turbo, you don't have all day to wait for a better spot, this is a pretty good one as it is.
#2 is a little different since 99 isn't going to hold as well when trying to snap someone off when they monkey shove 50BB.
If you're worrying about a bubble in a $4.40 where the mincash is $8, you really aren't leveraging the big stack you've spent the last hour building, are you? So what's the point of having all those chips? Make those other clowns worry about bubbling.
Why do you think this guy is making this kind of play at you, the one guy that can bust him? Because you can afford to raise/fold, so he's probably never getting called. He probably doesn't care about four bucks of profit.
2:01 PM
heffmike's points are valid.
Also, knowing this is a rush tourney, the tables are shorter than normal. This isn't two 8player tables, but like two 5 player tables and a 6 player table, no?
I think the AKo is a fistpumpsnapcall in that spot.
With the 99, you're most often no better than 70/30 (if you're facing an A-rag shove), and quite often racing. You may be 80/20 versus a smaller pair. But unlike the first hand, you're especially vulnerable to more hands in this spot, and you've got like 80 BB on the bubble.
2:53 PM
both those folds sound bad
3:12 PM
oh whoops, I didnt realize those shoves were such overbets. don't hate either fold now.
3:14 PM
For the first hand I think a lot of the decision relies on your read of your opponent and how you have been playing. Would your opponent think you're playing pretty tight? If so, then his reraise all in looks like a big hand, either AA or KK trying to get you to call with something like AK. If you've been raising with a pretty wide range, then I think he is trying to push you off the hand hoping you're raising a marginal hand instead of AK. In that case you're probably ahead. If you don't know much about him then you have to give him some credit for a big hand since there is no reason for him to tangle with the big stack
The 99 on the other hand is just not a very good call unless you have a really good read on the guy. He could have crap like Q-10 and still be almost 50/50. No need to get too involved in that one. You got enough chips to wait on this guy too.
Personally, I think he had the goods the first time but the second time he may not have. But as I said before he could have had a marginal hand and still been a coin flip with you.
7:58 PM
What heffmike said. Play for first.
6:13 AM
I've got to think that when people like Jerry Yang win the world series of poker main event, that you can do pretty much anything in any situation and you'll either get lucky or you won't. Shove or fold - fate owns your ass either way.
6:28 PM
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