Waffles Challenge
First off a few responses to my adoring public.
Judging from the few posts I have read, I am concluding that you are new to poker, read a few books, and expect immediate riches
No. Actually I have been play for a few years. It drives me INSANE when these people suckout because THEY ALWAYS DO. Do I ever suckout? Sure. Like once in a blue moon. However my 50-50's are like 10-90's and my 80-20's are like 40-60's. It is the truth. I do not expect my DOMINANT (laugh) hands to hold up anymore because they never do.
Can't imagine the name calling if Hoy's set of fours would have held up vs. KK.
I think that one re-suck on the river saved me going over MEGA TILT to SUPER EXTRA MEGA TILT.
All I really want to do is win one. That is it. I see people who make the worse calls ever win all the time. It is just sickening. It is true, Poker is gambling. It has nothing to do with skill or cards or anything. You might as well push with any two at random intervals. I hope Congress bans this crap.
It is pretty funny that I have not had this happen live. Do not get me wrong. I have had some suckouts vs Flush drawers and things like that. The players are ten times worse live, they get money in the pot with a lot worse hands, and somehow I seem to win. I guess it might be because it is all new and fresh so I have different expectations. I have seen ALOT bad beats live. I do not think online is rigged. Not sure why I seem to do so much better live. It is an interesting questions I am mulling.
Sometimes I wonder if I could corrupt online Poker. At the live games raises are insane pre-flop and flop bets are nasty. At the 100/NL at Foxwoods the pre-flop raise is anywhere between 10-20$ with everyone having $100 stacks and you might get 5-6 callers. If you played 100/NL fairly tight and when you had a raisable hand popped it 10-15$ I wonder what adjustments people would make online.
So on to the challenge. I am going to play a run of MTTs. I will have to figure out which ones and how many. I am going to keep a spreadsheet of all of these games. On every hand I will have the following columns: Ahead and I won, Behind and I sucked out, Folded Before River. I will write the matchups and the amounts that went in on each street. IMHO it is not a suckout when you call 3xBB and flop a monster if you have a stack or if a guy gives you odds by his bets to call. I think what we will find is that I do indeed have the worse luck of anyone on the planet and that the Poker Gods are against me.
posted by SirFWALGMan at
7:10 AM
19 Comments:
Lighten up, Francis
7:40 AM
I predict you get sucked out on the first time, forget the whole thing and just rant about it some more.
7:51 AM
Duggle has a good prediction.
Woffle, the reason why you've done so much better live are probably two factors: (1) Live is a different game where there is more information and players are more accountbale for their actions, and (2) You haven't played that much live.
I'm really interested to see what your Challenge shows. However, whether it shows that you get sucked out on more than the next guy really doesn't matter unless you plan on keeping track for a period of a year or more. Variance, my friend. Bitter-sweet variance.
10:16 AM
I did this on my blog for a few months (before it got hijacked and I lost my archives). I called it the luck-o-meter. Every race situation, if I was ahead or behind going in, and if I held up, sucked out, or lost.
I came to the conclusion that I was unlucky BECAUSE I was putting chips in while ahead about 70% of the time.
If you are mostly ahead in races, you will compile massive amounts of suckouts. That is the nature of the game.
Get used to it. :)
12:50 PM
Unless you run on this on say, I don't know, 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 hands, your results are not going to mean much. You are still talking short term, just keep making deposits into the equity bank and one day you will get it all back.
1:58 PM
"It drives me INSANE when these people suckout because THEY ALWAYS DO. Do I ever suckout? Sure. Like once in a blue moon. However my 50-50's are like 10-90's and my 80-20's are like 40-60's"
If you've really been playing for a few years and have accumulated even a few thousand hands, then I will publicly state, anonymously :), that you are a liar. You DO NOT get sucked out 100% of the time. I'll bet my anonymous life on it. And your 50-50's and 80 - 20's are the same as everyone elses. If you still stand by these ridiculous statements, then back it up with the PokerTracker database, not one or two hand histories. Quit whining, man up, and learn to take your beats like a man.
2:15 PM
I like Trauma's point. Seriously, fuck this project, Waffles, it's going to be a hellacious waste of time.
Luck is perception - if you want to believe you're unlucky, your mind will accentuate unlucky occurrences and minimize fortunate ones. Pokertracker on the other hand never lies. Just keep plugging away and stay positive.
As an aside:
How does anyone without the balls to leave their name and/or blog while criticizing a(n admittedly insane) person offer advice on "being a man"? Anonymous commenters are odiferous pussies by definition. What the fuck are you worried about, you quiche? Do you think anyone cares enough about this stuff to come after you? Get over your thumb-sucking insecurities dude.
Also you should know the blog before you expound - Waffles is nuts in a very predictable (and frankly entertaining) way, as is our community-wide response to him.
In other words: Fuck Off.
3:37 PM
Hey, James again. The more I think about, telling someone to fuckoff for making a cogent, well worded, on topic comment, all because it was an anonymous comment, is pretty shitty. Honestly man, it is harsh and shitty. Posting anonysmously has nothing to do with balls or being a man. However I think such anger and attack over someone havng the nerve to post anonymously to a blog, begs the question - what kind of man are you???
7:08 PM
Let me think about that one.
The kind who puts his money where his mouth is. The kind of man who tells you his name when he shows up and insults you. If I have a problem with you, at least you get easy access to look me up.
Lurking in the shadows and speaking when you don't know what the hell you are talking about is not bound to impress anyone - regardless of how well thought out your coherent point is, Charlene.
The real joke here is that you think your insight into Waffles is useful! I mean really, James? You don't believe Waffles gets sucked out on that much? Damn are you ever perceptive. Your understanding of statistics is both profound and irritating all at the same time. When did you start reading this blog - yesterday? This dude is certifiably nuts! He goes off like this once a week. We all expect it.
But if you're gonna call him on it, ya have to ante up and get in the game. At least have the balls to leave a name or email if you're going to question someone's manhood.
In other words, Fuck Off.
7:43 PM
How to win against suck-out artists: Jam early. Jam often. Raise preflop with high cards and if you get TPGK, jam.
8:59 PM
Ok I.A.K., Electrician somewhere in Middle America. You have a blog, so I guess you're not anonymous. I don't, so I am. So not having a blog makes me an asshole. Why should I put my email address here? What would that prove? I have absolutely no desire for someone that tells me to "fuck off" over something so silly, to have my email address. Would you like my phone number and home address too? I think I'll pass on that. I put my money where my mouth is about 4 hours a day. Just cause it's not in the Mookie, does not mean i;m not grinding every day and experiencing the same suckouts that Waffles is. I don't care if he flips out every other day, or whatever it is. I was merely pointing out that it was stupid, that he should want poor calls in his game, and that the numbers he is giving out lies. Al true, and none overly insulting. Why does this outrage you so much?
3:15 AM
Meant "ridiculous that he would NOT want poor calls"
3:20 AM
That struck you as outrage? That's wasn't outrage, Eunice.
Are you 14 years old? Is this the first time in your life anyone has told you to Fuck Off? I have a hard time believing that, but this is an interesting universe and many things are possible, if improbable.
You were rude to a friend, and unintentionally ironic when you advised him to "man up" without putting your name to it. You don't understand why that makes you a pussy? We come from different worlds.
For example, not only does my profile give you my online handle, it gives you my email. When I respond, you get my real name. So if I'm criticizing you, at least you know where it's coming from, just like everyone else on this list. We think Waffles is a Tiltosaurus Rex too, but we don't snipe from the shadows - that's for cowards, Henrietta.
As for your advice, it had the phillistian virtue of being patently obvious. The fact you don't get that is sadly comical. But based on what I've gotten from you so far, not exacty shocking.
7:13 AM
I was rude to your friend? He's rude, vulgar, hurtful, and psychotic to the whole world when he loses at poker. Yet, you're going to get your panties in a wad and jump to his defense because an "anonymous pussy" was rude to him? Get a life little fellow, and choose your friends better. I won't bother to tell him anymore how much a wise player wants bad calls at the poker table. I promise.
"Are you 14 years old? Is this the first time in your life anyone has told you to Fuck Off?"
No, I'm not 14, but most of the cyberball punks that tell people to "fuck off" on internet forums are. As far a being a pussy for not posting my email, I got no answer for that whiz kid. You believe what you want to. Just remember, you're the one calling me a pussy while you sit safely behind your keyboard trying so hard to sound like you got a pair. My "man-up" advice should have gone to you. As you mature, you'll see how silly you come across. I'm done with you now. Go play with your myspace account.
1:39 PM
Dear Anonymous,
I'm a pussy and a fucktard just like you, but if you ever want to play heads up for, um, bankrolls, I'm always here.
Sincerely,
Wes
4:44 PM
Hey James?
Fuck Off.
Goddamn! That still makes me chuckle. Last one. I promise.
9:46 PM
James, could you please tell your mumsy that the phrase pwned is so very 2004, and verah "Suite Life of Zack and Cody" tweener-talk?
Thank you and have a wonderful day.
11:21 PM
I would, but I'm not exactly sure what "pwned" means myself. Sorry, IAK.
And I am having a good day, thanks. Have a good one yourself.
11:17 AM
The beauty of this is that it is entirely possible that Mr. Anonymous actually only commented once and all the rest have been added anonymously by the rest of the bloggers. Not that I think the poker blogging community would stoop to such levels for cheap entertainment.
If only you could have seen me trying not to laugh while I typed that...
High Larry Us!
6:49 PM
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