Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Improbability Probability theorem of Poker

Intro
I have been hard at work figuring out the Improbability Probability theorem of Poker. What the advanced theory of poker expounds is the fact that online poker sites want to cause you the most pain possible. Not everyone at the table. Just you. The reason the Poker software algorithms work this way is simple. It really encompasses three reasons.

I. Most people are fucking lazy

It is true. Have you not seen how many fat bitches are in the grocery store buyin six boxes of donuts. Is it because they like donuts? No. It is because they do not have to cook donuts. The lazy fucks. Walking through the aisles is the most exercise most Americans get in a week. The whole fucking country is full of obese fat asses that do not want to work hard.

So in relation to the poker world, again, most of you are lazy fat fucks. You all want to win at poker but will not put in the time to read, play, analyze, and just learn to improve your game.

Even you guys who scanned through Super System once about five years ago.. yeah, I am talking to you.. so stop feeling so superior. You know you stopped learning after you closed that book. You figured you had it all down. Your lazy fucks who do not want to learn anything.

Lazy fucks are Donkeys and if the majority of players are lazy fucking donkeys then obviously the software will created more interest and playability, AKA, RAKE, if it rewards these fat fucks.

II. It is Amusing

So you have all these fat fuck donkeys playing wacked cards and getting paid off. The software realizes that the more painful the beat on the other guy the more amused you will be. Admit it. You LOVE it when TJo goes all in against AA and spikes his runner-runner straight on the river. It just glues you to the screen to see who is going to get fucked next. I bet you could fold every hand and just watch and read the chat and be amused. Who has not been amused by the comments? #**(#*(@ Ass Monkey! How the fuck could you call with 23o??!?!?!!?. It is worth the price of the rake and the software knows this. It is watching you. It is waiting. It entertaining you for a reason.

III. We all like pity

The game also knows that the good players are not going to quit because they think they are better then everyone else. Even though they are really only going to win with that monster hand 3-4 times for every loss when they do lose they can feel superior to the donkeys. In addition they are boosted by other good players sitting in the dark in their spiderman underoos moaning about how they were bad beat out of the Full Tilt 25K when that donkey did this. It is like the brotherhood of the miserable. It is like fucking crack cocaine. Everyone wants to be pitied and comforted and the software knows this is enough to keep you putting your quarters in.

Improbability Strategy
So in order to fight this insidious AI you must throw out everything you know about poker and do some level seventy-six thinking. Instead of thinking what does player A think I have and what does he think I think he has. Some solid old school thinking there. Look at the flop and say "What do I know player A has and what would be the most painful probable outcome for a player on the board.". So lets get into some real world examples. I was practicing this theory a little while ago and even though in needs some adjustments I am sure I am on to something.

Hand Example I:
Ok. The guy in EP is a real tightass and will never raise unless he has big pocket pairs. So the tighwad raises and you look down and see J5o. Of course you call here. You will never get a better chance to make someone cry and the AI knows this. The flop comes 592. The EP guy bets the pot. Now here is where it gets good. You know you are behind. However you know the most painful outcome would be to STACK this guy with J5o vs his AA. The AI does not reward being a pussy as that is no fun at all. So at this point you have only one move: INSTA PUSH. Obviously the guy in this 10$ MTT is never going to fold aces here so he calls. The AI kicks in and rewards you with a jack on the turn and rubs it in real good with a 5 on the river. The least probable thing has happened and you have screwed your opponent. See how it works?

Hand Example II:
You have all limped. The flop comes 3-spades and there are 5 players. You have the king and queen of spades. The guy in EP bets, you raise, the third guy pushes. Now you need to put these guys on hands. The first guy obviously has some sort of top pair hand.. you flopped the second highest flush. The third guy, if he is playing good improbability theory has A3o with an Ace of spades. SO your only move here is to fold. Of course the guy with TP calls and the turn gives Ax guy his nut flush. See. It is easy.

So remember.. it is not always going to be you who loses. It is REALLY important to make the good reads and figure out who is going to be hurt the most in the hand. If you can not put your opponents on hands then you can not figure this out. If you need some more proof either try this in one of your 5-10$ MTTs or go read Ick as he has started down the path of the dark side of the force. Us forward thinkers are always on the same page. As he has found out the more amusing the beat you can put on someone the more the AI is likely to make that outcome happen as it is +EV for the entire table. I will be giving more real world examples from some future MTTs I play in. If you would like to donate to the research of improbability probability then make all donations payable to SirFWALGMan on Full Tilt. Please send me a note if you wish to use your donation for any specific MTT testing as it is unclear if this theory works at all levels. If the donk quotient goes down then it is possible that the +EV move for the AI is just to let things play out normally. This is a very unclear path of the theorem and will need further investigation.

16 Comments:

Blogger jjok said...

Wait, you're saying play second pair against AA and fold a flopped second nut flush?

I don't get it. Maybe this is why you aren't profitable.

What a loser......


Did I miss the point?

12:23 PM

 
Blogger Eric a.k.a. Bone Daddy said...

Back from the dead...almost.

I went on a cruise with my family with the money I made at the Borgata this summer, made more money at the limit holdem table...and a few enemies on the ship, and caught FUCKING Legion aire's diesese or some shit like that, I've been out of action of 12 days, ended up in the hospital due to the virus, just a 4 hour, take 15 quarts of blood, to send me home and tell me to rest.

18th looks good, what is the plan, is there a tourniment that day, satalite, or just cash.

also, Harriahs in AC, which is a pit, has a few low cost ($300) NLHE in early december, I'll be there too. They are offical WSOP circuit events, so I'm in.

Also, thanks for the reference, I've never had my name and gapping used in the same sentence before...what an honor.

12:36 PM

 
Blogger DuggleBogey said...

"Your lazy fucks who do not want to learn anything. "

Big talk from a guy too lazy to learn the difference between "your" and "you're," or "then" and "than."

12:47 PM

 
Blogger ScottMcM said...

2 days ago I told you to stick that damn tampon in. Now take some midol and call me in the morning. I have seen less vagina in a Mexican whore house. So what, you got beat down like Reginald Denhey on a day trip to compton ( yeah I brought back the LA riots so what), get over it my breakfast treat friend.

I know schizophrenics that think they have less people after them than you. Will you please run up another $5k on a site and blow it all in 45 minutes playing BJ! I miss the old waffles!

Love and kisses once again

ScottMc

1:02 PM

 
Blogger HighOnPoker said...

Bone, I'm definitely playing in the Saturday Dec. 9th WSOP Circuit at Harrahs. Shoot me an email when you get a chance, cause it would be cool to meet up there. I'm also in for Foxwoods for Nov. 18th, chosen, mostly from what I can see, based on my availability, since wifey Kim won't be around. My plan is to just play cash games.

1:04 PM

 
Blogger TraumaPoker said...

I think we have better things to attack SIRF on then his use of gramar!!! My post SIRF was for fun and when I had heard you busted out on hand on I honestly got a vision in my head of you kicking a dog. I am not even sure if you own a dog. You are still the man!

1:21 PM

 
Blogger AlCantHang said...

Introducing the shortest "month" of not posting ever!

2:02 PM

 
Blogger SirFWALGMan said...

See all you losers are stuck in your "Best Odds over time" fucktard mode and are unwilling to realize there are forces at work bigger than you all.

Spelling is for Girls Duggles. If I had to stop thinking long enough to think about grammmah and speeling I would never get my thoughts down.

3:46 PM

 
Blogger DuggleBogey said...

Exactly my point. Lazy.

4:14 PM

 
Blogger Iakaris aka I.A.K. said...

Nevah Mind Waffles. Once one of us cuts off our ear and sends it to them they'll appreciate our genius.

Here's to the Improbability Theorem. Ford and Zaphod would be smiling in admiration.

4:16 PM

 
Blogger SirFWALGMan said...

There is a difference between being creative and wanting to embrace that side instead of the technical side of writing.. alot of the reason people read this blog even if they dont realize it is because it is RAW UNCUT it just pours out. Stopping to spell would be just wrong. Anyways.. by "You Lazy Fucks" I did not specifically mean you Duggles.. but if I hit a nerve I am sorry.

4:22 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Waffles, were you wearing tinfoil on your head while you wrote this? You know, the aliens can detect your thoughts.

5:38 PM

 
Blogger 23skidoo said...

You're right about I

thats when I stopped reading....zzinng!

6:14 PM

 
Blogger DuggleBogey said...

I just love the irony of the actual sentence "Your lazy fucks who do not want to learn anything." coming from someone who's too lazy to learn correct grammar.

It's not "work." It doesn't take extra time. It's just knowledge that you are too lazy to learn.

I don't think you're too stupid to learn correct grammar and spelling, I just think you're too lazy to do so.

7:13 AM

 
Blogger Fuel55 said...

OK Waffles you may be a donuthole but I still made a donation to this level 26 thinking stuff. I expect an epic report in triplicate by Christmas.

9:16 AM

 
Blogger DP said...

OMG LAZY FUCK???? YOU CAN'T EVEN SPELL. LOSER! (lol)

4:21 PM

 

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