Crazy Night at the 26K
Holy fuck is that a donkfest. I had a decent time. I got pocket pairs 5 times in the first half hour.. nice ones like Jacks, Queens, Tens, and Kings and ok a baby pair of sevens.. EVERY SINGLE TIME I WAS AGAINST BIGGER PAIRS. Holy fuck was poker out to get me last night. So after losing a bunch on these hands and sucking out once jacks vs kings on a T84 board.. I was down to a chip and a chair.. ok, well, 400 chips.. Normally I like giving up here because man was I fuming.
Instead I took a few breaths.. sat out a few hands.. called to the calm that I find so illusive in poker.. and settled down to play. I chipped up and did not get too crazy and finally found myself on the the money bubble and past. I finished up in 100th place or so with an interesting play..
I have about 12K in chips after pulling off two decent steals. I am in the SB and the blinds are I think 800/400 with an ante. They may have been a little higher. So when it is HU between me and the BB and I have pocket sixes I decide to raise pot. This leave me with 8K. The BB thinks for 3 seconds and JAMS his entire stack in.
I consider. I figure he is just mad at me raising his blind and likely does not have a great hand. I am guessing we are racing. Because no matter what he has I am likely racing. So I say "Ok let's gamble" and call.. He shows Ace.. eight.. offsuit.. and I go home for the night.
So is this a spot where you gamble and try and get a 24K stack and make a deeper run or where your deep enough that you fold and wait for a better situation. I keep running into instances like that.. where I know I am ahead but only slightly.. like 60/40.. I am in the money.. I am somewhat deep.. and I decide the right move is to gamble and try and make a stack. Is this what the big players do? Iak? Hoy? Or do they pick a better spot? I tend to think that winning players consider it "Just another MTT" and gamble here when they think they are ahead.. am I wrong?
** EDIT: Please when commenting do not consider what the other person "possibly" could have. I trust my read here that he has no pair. I know I will never convince anyone that this is true so lets just assume we can see his cards. So if the cards are face up and you see he has A8 what is your move.
Anyway.. feeling good about my game. I screwed up my internet connection last night installing my new router. I need to get that fixed quick. If I do I am playing in the 50/50 tonight.. otherwise I will have to find a different game.
Good luck to most of you.
posted by SirFWALGMan at
7:34 AM
14 Comments:
I fold the 6s there man. I would be more apt to take that race early on in the tournament than I would be getting deep into the money where now holding on for a while longer and maybe getting the chance to get in as more than a 51 or 52% favorite can really be worth something. I think that's the money move to maximize your success in the big mtts.
Not sure why you said 60-40 in your post. Most likely (not definitely of course, but I think it makes sense for you to consider it highly likely), if the guy is reraising you allin, he's going to have a higher pair or two overcards to the shiatty 6s. And I say why not stick around with 8k, last into the top 100, and see if you can pick up a little more cash while you wait either for a big hand to push, or at least for a better spot like where you have KJs in middle position in an unopened pot or something where you can get in your money and maybe take down the blinds or even possibly get someone to call you with QJ or JT and really get some equity.
In any event, running to 100th in that effing minefield is pretty impressive, if you can do it with any consistency. I can hardly play the 26k anymore it is so impossible to survive through.
See you in the donkament tonight? Try to last till the second hour this time though, willya?
8:06 AM
My thinking was.. and this may be faulty.. I am already in the top 100 or so.. the money does not get much better until 20th.. So go for it.. but maybe you are right.
I was pretty positive he just had 2 over cards at best.. which is a coin flip in my favor..
8:17 AM
Fold and wait for a better spot.
You only beat 22-55 and its doubtful you face a jam with those, you're crushed by 77-AA, so really your best case scenario is a coin flip. Best case.
8:22 AM
i made a similar play the other night, with 66, and got sent home in a mtt. blinds were 100/200, i had just over 2k (i was shortie at table), and a guy in middle position raised to 700. i shoved, he called and showed A something (i can't even remember) and hit his ace. i was soooo pissed off afterward for not waiting for a better spot when a) i could be the initial raiser (which in your case you already were) and b) i am not racing and may actually be ahead.
congrats on making it so far. looking forward to our next hu match!
8:45 AM
My thing is, you only get so many chances to run deep in these donkeyfield mtts, and you absolutely cannot waste those opportunities when they present themselves. So to me I feel like I see it as the exact opposite of your view from last night. To me you've finally made the money in a very hard to navigate field, and now you need to focus on conserving, and above all else not calling allin or getting allin without fold equity and without a significant advantage. Of course we all get short enough at some point that you can't wait for this all the time, but if you started than hand with 12k and could have exited with 8k left and a chance to continue with a real stack, you could have and I would have taken it.
When it comes right down to it, I find that getting real deap in big mtts like this has a lot to do with being able to lay down to reraises where you have little to no advantage in calling off the rest of your stack.
Just my two cents, ymmv.
9:37 AM
I'm going to go against the crowd here and say that you made the right play. You mentioned that you had just recently pulled two steals, and I believe that is important information. It appears the stack to your left saw your stealing and decided to put a stop to it.
I gave this guy a range of any pair, any ace, and any two broadway cards, which I bet is slightly larger than his actual range. Running the numbers you come out as a 53% favorite, a coinflip as others have pointed out.
However, at this point 1/3 of your stack is in the pot, the blinds are high, and you are getting better than 2-1 to call here. You're not going to go a lot deeper without winning some races, and if you fold you don't have a lot of time to sit around and wait for a big hand with an M less than 4. You will also not have as much fold equity for the times when you don't hit that big hand and are forced to steal. If the blinds are about to go up, your situation is even worse. I make this call every time.
9:40 AM
Btw this "coin flip in my favor" business is nonsense man, you have got to stop thinking like that. A 51% coin flip is "in your favor" in pure mathematics only. What it means is that if you took that race 100 times, you would win 51 times and lose 49. That is not a 60-40 situation, which is to me a fairly significant favorite, or anything other than just a win-half-the-time, lose-half-the-time scenario. IMO you do not want to be so willing to take a 50-50 shot to double or go home when you could instead live to fight another day with still 8k in chips intact in your stack.
Races are death in tournaments man. Races and draws. You take these things early or you take them when you have to, but willingly taking a race situation in the cash is something I try to avoid at all possible costs.
9:40 AM
In this case at best you are a 55%-45% favorite (if you know his hand and he has neither of your suits). But if his range is 77+ and any two overcards you are exactly 50/50 here. If it's just two overacrds you are 53/47. So I think I would not make the call.
It was fun seeing you at my table last night even when I missed 21 outs twice to bust you. How the hell does that happen?
10:01 AM
I refuse to argue what he could have had. I knew what he had. I agree with Matt's estimate of his range. If I fuck up a read ever then I accept I screwed up. Just looking to see if a race is a good thing and/or do I play it any differently.. and/or fold.
10:13 AM
As an addendum, I would most assuredly fold this hand with a slightly larger stack. I just think the particular circumstances of this hand compel you to call.
11:09 AM
Just another reason why waffles will never win a big tournament..... You just don't have what it takes little man.....
11:32 AM
Very constructive advice Chad I can see why you are even with me with that in depth analysis.
11:38 AM
personally, i don't like going to war with middle pairs late in a tournament. if you're short-stacked, you don't have much choice. otherwise, look for a better spot. no need to gamboool you had plenty of chips to play "real" poker.
11:39 AM
tough one...really had to mull this one over. I know I have taken that race at times, and I think it's defendable. it's hard to believe you wouldnt find a better spot though. Not by cards but by a preflop position jam for blinds to buy time until a hand shows up. Actually folding out this hand may buy you more credibility for your next shove.
Interesting.
8:05 AM
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