Quick Question
I had a question about a hand I had last night. I think I played it well, even though I could have picked a better place to risk my remaining stack. So here is the situation. I am sitting in late position. I get AQ Spades. Not a strong hand. Actually one of my trouble hands. However I decide to play. There are three in including BigChiefTokem. The flop comes a REALLY nice KJx spades. So not only do I have the flush draw and the straight draw but the straight flush draw. I also possibly have an overcard out. So I figure I will never in my life get more odds to make a draw than this. I have about half my stack left and when the guy before me puts out a pot sized bet I decide to go over the top of him and go all in. The Chief steps aside with his 23o, and the other guy goes all in without a second though. He flips over trips so my overcard out is dead. However the turn is a spade and the board does not pair so I am a winnnnahhhh. Is this too agggressive for a ring game? Do you ever want to put all your money in with possibly 15 outs? In this case I really was looking for a call. If he folded then cool but I thought I had a good shot at winning the showdown. Is this a good way to think? Any thoughts?
posted by SirFWALGMan at
8:44 AM
5 Comments:
If you truly had 15 outs before the turn, you were actually favored to win the hand. So no, not a bad move at all.
1:07 PM
Well, from what I could see I did:
9 - NUT Flush
4 - NUT Straight (oops double counted a spade so (3))
3 - Overs (A)
==
15
The reality of the hand I would not have won with the 3 overs. So I actually had 12. Am I missing something?
1:24 PM
SirFWALGMan said : In this case I really was looking for a call.
Hardly! You got lucky as he was a 66.2% favorite after the flop. You were getting correct odds to call, but your raise was a mistake (as he wasn't going anywhere). So to summarize, both of you made "mistakes" in the play of the hand. Of course we have the luxury of hindsight.
4:16 PM
Does the theory of sucking out apply to NL? If I have sufficient outs (apparently) to warrant sucking out a win does that not make it worth it to get as many chips in as possible If I call him then the spade hits the turn I am not going to get all of his chips. Going all in assures either victory (by him folding), victory (by suckout) or losing (by missing all my pretty outs)? It is risky but rewarding too.
5:03 PM
The Theory of Sucking Out was written with limit hold'em in mind. The formulae therefore are inapplicable but the underlying principle applies to NL. Back to your problem. You are facing a pot size bet on the flop with a strong drawing hand. In order to properly analyze the situation as per your criteria above, we need to know, among other things, whether the pot was raised pre-flop and by whom, the money in the pot and the stack sizes. Till then all I have to go on is information which wouldn't be available to me during the game - he flopped a set - so it is easy for me to conclude that victory by folding is zero (making victory a 33.8% shot), and by corollary, that calling is OK and raising is a no-no.
8:50 PM
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