Tuesday, January 03, 2006


How many times are you going to go on about losing with a 65% favourite?!?! Thats poker, and it happens to us all.

- Dangerous

From the comments section .. new reader? I dunno. It brings up a good point and the gist of what I struggle with in Poker. It is not that I always expect to win when I am ahead 80% plus, but once or twice would be nice? I probably exagerate a little, it is a trait, but it just seems like I do not win these one of four times. I does not seem like I win the coinflips or much of anything. I know this is probably just me being down and seeming like nothing is working but it is how I feel and that is all I can share here.

It brings up a more important point though.. if the best you can usually hope for is 55-60%.. and aewsome odds have you winning 4 of five times if the stars align and .. then is there really alot more to Poker than luck? Instead of poker being about skill with a little luck thrown in, it really seems more like it is all about luck with a little skill thrown in.

It is funny how a little perspective changes your thinking. Over a year ago when I could not lose if I tried I figured it was all skill and luck had nothing to do with it, however, now that I have had an extended losing streak its all luck and there is no skill involved. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle and is probably somewhat different for every player.

Just as a side note, I also agree with Iamhoff. I have enjoyed watching Poker on TV lately. It is fun to see the one outers hit for a Matusow and Phil go ballistic. I am not sure if that gives me more or less hope about Poker. I guess it just gives a different view of the game..

As far as how many times I am going to whine about an 80% favorite losing.. probably alot more times. The blog in a way is for the people reading it. I enjoy that aspect of it. It is nice to have a little notoriaty and to be able to see other people's perspectives on the game. It is a GREAT community we have here to. However the blog has also grown into a nice outlet for ME. If I am lamenting the beats then I am going to spill that out onto these pages.. if I am riding the wave to the top you will hear about that.. whatever I feel I need to get off my chest will come out here. Sometimes it will be really excellent writing.. some days/weeks/months it will be a huge cry fest, who know's there might even be some strategy posts. So take out of it what you want. If you get tired of reading then leave. If you have nothing better to do at work then stay. The blog will continue on giving it's own version of what Poker is.. one person's version in a world of players.. my version of the truth and nothing else. Take it or leave it.


Anonymous highonpoker said...

Hey Waffle. I hope you are planning on playing in the DADI Special Omalympics. You were sorely missed at the inaugural DADI event. Keep bitching and moaning, else you'll stop being the Waffle.

9:44 AM

Blogger Klopzi said...

I'm with you...I just had a similar conversation with a friend of mine about losing when I'm the 65% favourite. Or the 70% favourite. Or the 85% favourite.

Two things keep me going though. First off, I'm much happier being the favourite when all my chips are in. And if it weren't for these people who'll call a re-raise from a tight player holding only an A3o, then the game wouldn't be as +EV as it is.

With that in mind, I'll still keep bitching when my I lose a coin-toss with my pocket 3s cuz if I didn't have anything bad to say about my game, I'd have nothing to write about.

11:21 AM

Blogger CJ said...

Hmmm... if you are actually losing these big favorites more often then you are winning (which I find hard to believe) you should probably walk away from the game because you're doomed.

In reality, you only remember those losses more than you remember the expected wins.

That's poker. If you only focus on those bad beats it will kill your game and make you either reckless (because it doesn't matter if you're ahead or not) or timid (because you're waiting for the nuts).

12:23 PM

Blogger SirFWALGMan said...

Doooooomed I say.. Doooooomed!

4:10 PM

Blogger iamhoff said...


Doomed I tell you, doomed! Bwah ha ha ha! Seriously, keep blogging. Tell us all about the suckouts. We've all had them, and it's nice to hear we're not the only ones. Balls out. Go for the gusto. Damn the torpedos, and all that crap. And klopzi has it right, ya gotta love those A3o re-raises!

4:41 PM

Blogger Drizztdj said...

Go back thru your pokertracker and look at your big wins. I'm sure a few of them were 80% favorites that made it, and a few where you suckedout.

6:26 AM

Blogger TraumaPoker said...

Are you every online? When I see you one Yahoo you never talk to me SIRF!! :(

We need to play some cribbage or something. Anything where I can hear you coughing in my ear again on chat would make me happy. COME BACK SOOOOOONER THEN LATER!!

4:45 PM


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