Kats Dance, Clocks Fly, 2006 is Odd, and Garth Gives Advice
How are you all on this fine 01:02:03 04/05/06? Yeah, I am a nerd – sue me. Not much news. I may need to take a few days off playing poker to make some money at my second-side job.
I will be playing the Mookie tonight as long as I do not crash and burn in the snowstorm on the way home. Tonight’s Mookie is very special: Kats First Dance. It is named for Katitudes first MTT win last week. Now if we can get Veneno to play (and she wins) we can name next weeks “Take that Bitch!”. Katitude has gone 5-0 vs me in the last five MTTs we have been in. Oh yea, it burns. Last night at the WWDN I went out early when my Pocket Rockets got creamed by Sailboats. No bad plays on either side. Basically I was against someone I would classify as *cough* average. So I could put her on anything from AK, KQ, or lower to a set or even a flush draw. It *might* have been a good idea for me to fold there and against a better opponent I may have but I can live with my move against this particular opponent.I am also taking the Garthmeister Challenge. I asked my good friend Garth what he thinks I should focus on for the near future. So he suggested I try five 20$-180/SNGs. I think that is a fine idea. So that is what I am going to do for the next few days.
Last but not least. I know mathematical theory works on known facts and not unknown factors. Unless your talking about Chaos theory. However. Do an experiment. Deal yourself 20 cards from a deck. Pick a suit. Now how many times did you deal 20 cards and 3 of that suit not come up? If we run that scenario a million times I bet the percentages of a single suit not being in those twenty cards would be small. So when we play full ring games and draw to our flush because we have “9” outs, do we really? Should we factor it at like 7 if it is full ring, 8 if it is six-handed, and a full 9 if it is HU? Could Veneno be onto something here? Betting her draws with the full amount of outs? Hmm. Just some food for thought. I am sure just like my many other theories someone has already suggested this and has a cool name for it and everything.
posted by SirFWALGMan at
10:46 AM
8 Comments:
I see what you are getting at, when considering outs. I agreed with you until I read Wes's comment. If it is a full 10-person table, then besides your two cards, there are 18 other cards out there that are already in play (hole cards) and could have your suit. The problem is, if you were to discount your outs by a couple to account for the probability that your outs are already dealt, then you would also have to remove all of those other hole cards from your calculations. Let's assume that with 18 hole cards out there we KNOW that there will be 3 of your suit dealt out (assume for arguments sake). Then you only have 6 outs, but its 6 out of 29 cards (52 - 2 hole cards - 18 other players' hole cards - 3 flop). So your odds are now hypothetically 6:23 or about 1:4. Now, if you ignore the fact that your outs may be dealt, you have 9 outs out of 47 potential cards (52 - 2 hole cards - flop). 9:47 = about 1:5. I guess the point is, there is no way to know how many have been dealt out anyway, so you are going to add more uncertainty and difficult math to the process.
But I see what you are getting at, and it may make some sense to mentally discount your outs.
11:31 AM
I totally understand the traditional probability math.. just pushing the envelope a little. Not sure that I would change my way of calculating odds to my draw but might.
Besides who the hell EVER gets odds to call in NLHE? I get PUT ALL IN all the time when the other guy has a flush draw. Nobody cares about odds. Crazy.
11:52 AM
Nice hidden insult (or was it hidden?) to the person who busted you with the 4s.
I'm not sure what you mean about laying it down to a better player. Perhaps you're just kidding and it's a dig at someone you know, but if not, I'm curious how you determine a players ability and then change the way you play Aces against them. Does that mean you're more vulnerable to a bluff against good players than bad?
11:58 AM
I think I am somewhat more vulnerable to weaker players. It was not totally meant as a dig. Nothing wrong with how this player played the hand. However I would expect a less experienced player to more likely have a weaker hand and be willing to push with it or call an all in with it. I do adjust my play according to the perceived skill of the player across from me.
For example. I would never pull a high stakes bluff against a poor player. They have no ability to lay down a huge hand. On the other hand I might do so against someone I know can lay it down for a better spot.
In some games I play, where I know I am against an inferior player, I am much more likely to call an all in with TPTK or overs. I would have a harder time making a call like this against someone I respected.
It may be a fault in my game, you know, adjusting to the player, but I think you pass up WAY to many good chances to double up when you give people too much respect. Sometimes you get nailed by it when they actually have a hand but in the long run I think it pays off.
12:27 PM
You are a solid NL tournament player. I would suggest that you move into the 2/4 No Limit cash games and forget the 10 multis. I have tripled my bank roll this week by doing just that. The 1/2 and 2/4 NL tables are full of players who dont want their money.
6:44 PM
Hmmm... just think you're gonna walk into a lot of big hands and lose your stack assuming someone is an "inferior" player. Something to watch for.
10:00 PM
Just to simply a little bit of what "highonpoker" said, but without the math, on a flush draw, you have 9 outs out of 45 after (205) the flop. Those cards will be out in the same proportion or ratio to the other players' hole cards, regardless of whether you are heads up or against a full table. i.e 20% of the cards the other players have are you flush draw outs, but 80% are not, the ratio of the cards remaining to be dealt then stays constant at 20/80. If you are facing 5 other players, on average, there are two of your flush outs in their ten hole cards, but also eight non-flush outs; your probability of hitting your flush is still the same.
Not sure if that helped or confused the issue.
7:52 PM
The information on this is in one of your books. The only way u can discount cards is if you believe they are on a flush draw as well. There are to many reasons for someone to all in on a flush draw. Maniac, your past play, implied odds, they have a set, advertising, etc. Experience will help you make the right decision in any situation. I suggest you rely on your player notes and play at the same tables with the same players. So you can start reading players. Otherwise stick to the basic blocking and tackling.
10:55 AM
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